A managingenergy.com Baseline Model is a mathematical formula used to predict meter energy usage that should appear on a bill, based on the values of known independent variables. The most commonly used independent variables are billing period (number of days), heating degree days (a measure of heating load), and cooling degree days (a measure of cooling load). mec allows additional user-defined independent variables such as production volume, occupied suites, or meals served.
When it comes time to measure the performance of energy conservation efforts, to find out how much is actually being saved, the Baseline Model can be thought of as an imaginary, mathematically-defined "What Would Have Happened" utility meter. The savings are the difference between the actual meter and this mathematical meter.